Here comes another bubble video

That's good stuff, good observations. I take it as a vid theorizing what i've been pondering myself. It seems like in the tech industry there are waves of ups and downs in terms of money. So when there's a "boom" there are all these companies addressing human needs which equate to money. Out of a gazillion such companies, one or two are extremely good and sweep the floor with the others (such as google, ebay, etc), all of the business gets pushed into them, they get filthy rich and the "startups" all die out, and in the death the smart ones cash out, others are unfortunate.

Then there's a period of death in the tech industry, where the only ones left innovating are the fat cats that survived, they further develop the tech infrastructure, and make more things possible. Then all the sudden it becomes possible to be able to fill new human needs, like with facebook there's the need for socialization and at the least a fancy online phone book -- RIA technology and overall advances in hardware (allowing AJAX to get crunched faster than before) make this possible. With youtube, there's video and widespread broadband capability.

Now this video claims that there's another bubble about to pop -- however i disagree. I think there will be bubbles that pop, such as the social networking bubble, it's just too hard to compete with facebook and myspace... so other social networking start ups might die out. But then there are many other endeavors, such as the race for high-def internet video, and this endeavor will be on a cycle as well, but since it will be on a different phase from the social networking "bubble," the entire tech industry won't really feel the loss because the unemployed from the social networking bubble will move to video which might be in its peak at that time.

Now if you mix in all the other technology endeavors, such as the IDE, virtualization, RIA-ifying "Office" apps and creative apps, the future looks fairly bright for the tech industry... when one endeavor dies out, another one is still full in boom. The only thing that might happen, and i think it will, is that it will just stop growing at the rate it has been.

I guess overall you can call it "maturity".